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Via Daily Kos:
This is pretty much unchanged, from the toplines (just float within the MoE), to the favorability numbers.
These findings are quite different from Rasmussen’s latest Virginia poll, which found McDonnell with a narrow 48-46 lead, and seeming evidence that McDonnell’s college thesis had hurt his numbers:
Pretty odd that left-leaning Daily Kos shows Deeds trailing McDonnell by a wider margin than does Rasmussen - who tends to lean right.
Mason Dixon is out with a new poll today showing Barack Obama with a narrow two point lead over John McCain in Virginia. The poll was conducted October 20 to October 21 and sampled 625 registered voters who indicated they were likely to vote in the upcoming election. Eight percent of those polled remain undecided.
Obama has widened his lead in Northern Virginia (61%-31%), but McCain maintains his margins in Virginia’s rural regions and the Richmond Metro area. The race still looks like it will come down to the Hampton Roads/Tidewater region, where Obama is now slightly ahead (48%-43%).
Obama leads with blacks, voters under 50, women those who identify as Democrats, and is now ahead among those who identify themselves as independents (49%-38%). McCain leads among men, voters over the age of 50, whites, those who identify as Republicans and those who have served in the military McCain has a slightly higher favorable rating than Obama (48%-46%) and Obama has slightly higher negatives (39%-35%).
In addition, 57% listed the economy as their number one issue with national security and taxes/government spending following with 11 and eight percent respectively.
Earlier this week, a Rasmussen Reports poll showed Obama leading McCain by ten points in Virginia.
[h/t RK]
In recent weeks we have seen several polls showing Barack Obama leading by as much as 10-15 points in Virginia. While I have no doubt that Obama is leading in the state I was doubting he had a 10-15 point lead, until now. With conservative pollster Rasmussen showing Obama up by ten in a poll released yesterday, I have no doubt that Obama will win and win big in VA:
Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama now leading 54% to 44%. The Democrat leads 51% to 48% among men and 57% to 42% among women (see full demographic crosstabs).
Just one week ago, Obama held a three percentage point lead but Obama has been dramatically outspending McCain on television advertising in this critical state. The Democrat has now been ahead of McCain in five straight Virginia polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports.
Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable.
George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans. No Democrat has won the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But, with release of this poll, Virginia moves from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.
Is this the “who would you rather have a beer with” of 2008?
Obama was the pick over McCain by a narrow 50 percent to 47 percent, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Friday that generally mirrored each presidential candidate’s strengths and weaknesses with voters. Women, minorities, younger and unmarried people were likelier to prefer catching a game with Obama while men, whites, older and married people would rather watch with McCain.
Check out the new Quinnipiac “swing state” poll which shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in arguably three of the most important swing states: Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio! Also worth noting is the fact that the poll found putting Hillary Clinton on the Obama ticket does not help Democrats.
Obama Leads McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton On The Ticket Does Not Help Dems — FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43; OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40
With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
- Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
- Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
- Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.
The article goes on to further address the issue of whether or not to put Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket:
“If Sen. Obama seriously is thinking about picking Sen. Clinton as his running mate, these numbers might cause him to reconsider. The people who really matter come November - independent voters - turn thumbs down on the idea. And, many say they are less likely to vote for him if he puts her on the ticket,” Brown added.
You know the Republican party is in trouble when John McCain only leads Barack Obama by six points in one of the most reliably red states in the country. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll released today McCain would beat Obama by a 50-44 margin in Mississippi. In 2004 George Bush won the state by a 20 point margin defeating John Kerry 60-40 and a Democrat hasn’t won the state since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976.
Now obviously this doesn’t mean (nor do I honestly believe) that Obama will carry the state, but to be so far out and only trail McCain in Mississippi by six points, I’d say Obama has a healthy shot at swiping the state from Republicans in November!
Note to Clinton campaign: Your declaration that Obama cannot carry Pennsylvania in the general election if he can’t beat Hillary in the Pennsylvania primary is totally insane.
First of all, any American that buys in to this crap needs to pay more attention. Second of all, a new poll out from Rasmussen reports shows that Hillary carries California (a state she won in the primary by a pretty decent margin) by only seven points over McCain while Obama carries it by 15! That’s a pretty low number this far in advance there Hillary. Especially for a state that is pretty much a Democratic lock every four years. On top of that another recent poll out from Rasmussen shows Hillary down two points on McCain in Pennsylvania while Obama is down only one.
So I’m not quite sure where the logic in the Clinton campaign’s argument is, but then again since they’re pretty much ripping pages out of the Republican playbook, that’s more than likely how they would prefer it.
It took me a few hours to put this together but it probably wouldn’t have been possible and certainly wouldn’t be nearly as up to date if SurveyUSA hadn’t released a similar poll last week. However, SurveyUSA isn’t the best polling source so I averaged all polls I could find that were current within the past month. The two biggest headlines you could take from this would be that Obama carries Virginia and that even Texas appears to be in play.
View the state by state results after the jump!
Here’s a look at the latest polls just out from Virginia and Maryland:
Virginia Democratic Primary (SurveyUSA) Obama 60, Clinton 38
Maryland Democratic Primary (SurveyUSA) Obama 55, Clinton 32
And on the Republican side:
Virginia Republican Primary (SurveyUSA) McCain 48, Huckabee 37, Paul 7
Maryland Republican Primary (SurveyUSA) McCain 52, Huckabee 26, Paul 10
We all still need to get out and vote tomorrow!! Hopefully the crazy evangelicals come out in support of Mike Huckabee too. The longer he stays in this the weaker McCain looks (if that’s even possible after the hack job Conservatives have been doing on him) going into the general election.
In case you needed another reason to vote for Barack Obama, here’s a look at two recent polls showing Obama leading McCain in a head to head match up:
McCain vs. Obama (Rasmussen) McCain 42, Obama 47, Undecided 11
McCain vs. Obama (Time) McCain 41, Obama 48, Undecided 6
By comparison:
McCain vs. Clinton (Rasmussen) McCain 46, Clinton 43, Undecided 11
McCain vs. Clinton (Time) McCain 46, Clinton 46, Undecided 8
While I have no doubt that both Obama and Clinton could beat McCain, it’s still nice to go into it with a lead!
Well Super Tuesday is finally here. Here’s a look at some of the latest polls:
New Jersey Democratic Primary (Rasmussen) Clinton 49, Obama 43
California Democratic Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) Obama 49, Clinton 36
California Democratic Primary (SurveyUSA) Obama 42, Clinton 52
New Jersey Democratic Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) Clinton 46, Obama 41
Missouri Democratic Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) Clinton 42, Obama 45
Georgia Democratic Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) Obama 49, Clinton 29
And on the Republican side of things:
California Republican Primary (SurveyUSA) McCain 39, Romney 38, Huckabee 11, Paul 5
California Republican Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) McCain 33, Romney 40, Huckabee 12, Paul 3
New York Republican Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) McCain 56, Romney 20, Huckabee 7, Paul 2
New Jersey Republican Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) McCain 53, Romney 24, Huckabee 5, Paul 4
Missouri Republican Primary (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby) McCain 34, Huckabee 27, Romney 25, Paul 4
And there you have it. Things should be interesting today, and since I’m working from home I’ll be blogging the Super Tuesday results all day long. So check back often throughout the day and hit refresh every three seconds.
Barack Obama has essentially erased Hillary Clinton’s lead not only in California (where earlier today Maria Shriver made a surprise visit to endorse Obama at a voter rally in Los Angeles), but nationwide as well. Here’s a look at some of the polls set to be released tomorrow:
California Democratic Primary (Suffolk): Clinton 39, Obama 40
Democratic Presidential Nomination (USA Today/Gallup): Clinton 45, Obama 44
Democratic Presidential Nomination (CBS News/New York Times): Clinton 41, Obama 41
On the Republican side of things, it’s looking more and more like John McCain will be the nominee (that should be interesting, since much of the Republican base loathes him):
Republican Presidential Nomination (USA Today/Gallup): McCain 42, Romney 24
Republican Presidential Nomination (CBS News/New York Times): McCain 46, Romney 23, Huckabee 12
Via Politico:
As the Democratic presidential hopefuls gather in Los Angeles for a precedent-setting gay-sponsored and -themed debate, new data show that in the key Electoral College states the endorsement of gay rights groups hurts a candidate much more than it helps.
Quinnipiac University polls of voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — the big three Electoral College swing states — found voters by large margins more likely to see the endorsement of a gay rights group as a reason to vote against, rather than for, a candidate.
Polls have shown that an increasing number of Americans support equal civil rights for gay Americans, so you know, consider the source (Quinnipiac University).
The Human Rights Campaign is sponsoring a debate between the Democratic candidates tonight from Los Angeles. Vivian Paige has much more info on the event.
In honor of the Hillary Clinton American Idol campaign theme song contest finally reaching the final round, and quite frankly, because all of her choices suck, The Colette is having a “contest” of our own! Choose the REAL Hillary campaign theme song from the list below, or leave your own suggestion in the comments! Aaaaand GO!…..
A mere 33 percent of Americans approve of President Bush according to the latest Rasmussen poll, and only 14 percent of the misguided “strongly approve.” This from a poll that notoriously puts Bush’s approval numbers higher than the national average.
After three straight days at the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports, President Bush’s Job Approval ratings slipped another point to another new low on Tuesday.
Just 33% of American adults now Approve of the way that George W. Bush is performing his duties as President. Prior to this past week, the President’s ratings had never slipped below 35% and had only reached that level for a day or two at a time.
The President’s ratings tumble each time immigration reform dominates the news because he loses support among his base—just 66% of Republicans now give him their approval (that matches the lowest level of support he’s ever received from his base). Even as the stock markets set new records, just 36% of investors approve of the President’s performance.
How low can he go!
In a new AP poll out tonight, President George Bush received a vote of “Biggest Villain” from 25 percent of Americans. Bush’s 25 percent topped Osama bin Laden by three times the percentage points. Saddam Hussein, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong Il and even SATAN received FAR LESS votes than Bush.
As proof of just how polarized the U.S. is right now, thanks mostly to the President himself, Bush also topped the list of biggest heroes in 2006, however he only received 13 percentage points, far less than the 25 he received for biggest villain. The troops in Iraq finished second in the biggest hero category with six percentage points.
For those interested, Oprah Winfrey received “Best Celebrity Role Model” honors with 29 percent of the vote. Oprah was followed by Michael J. Fox with 23 percent, George Clooney with 12 percent, and Angelina Jolie with 8 percent. On the opposite end, Britney Spears was awarded “Worst Celebrity Role Model” with 29 percent of the vote. Spears was followed by Paris Hilton with 18 percent, Mel Gibson with 12 percent, and Tom Cruise with 9 percent.
SeattlePi breaks down the poll by Demographics, for anyone interested.
Survey was conducted of 741 LIKELY VOTERS from November 3 through November 5.
Survey was taken from November 1 - November 3 of 916 LIKELY VOTERS.
The new Rasmussen poll out today has Allen and Webb tied at 49 percent each. I tend to believe this one a little more than the past couple that have come out in the previous 2 days because unlike those, this one doesn’t show ridiculously high numbers of undecideds.