Too Progressive

Check out the new Quinnipiac “swing state” poll which shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in arguably three of the most important swing states: Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio!  Also worth noting is the fact that the poll found putting Hillary Clinton on the Obama  ticket does not help Democrats.

Obama Leads McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton On The Ticket Does Not Help Dems — FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43; OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40

With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:

• Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
• Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
• Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

The article goes on to further address the issue of whether or not to put Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket:

“If Sen. Obama seriously is thinking about picking Sen. Clinton as his running mate, these numbers might cause him to reconsider. The people who really matter come November - independent voters - turn thumbs down on the idea. And, many say they are less likely to vote for him if he puts her on the ticket,” Brown added.

Barack Obama delivers yet another inspiring speech to a crowd of 8,000 last night in Evansville, Indiana:

CNN is now projecting that Hillary Clinton will, as expected win the state of Pennsylvania. What remains to be seen though (and perhaps the bigger story of the evening) is exactly how large her margin of victory will be. As I said in my earlier post, Clinton was expected to win tonight but as long as Obama doesn’t lose by any more than 10 points it’s a victory for him considering Clinton was 20+ points ahead just a couple of weeks ago.

10:00pm UPDATE: Clinton leading 54-46 with 49% reporting.

10:19pm UPDATE: Clinton is currently speaking to supporters in Philadelphia. With 66% of precincts reporting she is still leading Obama 54-46.

10:45pm UPDATE: As Obama begins to address supporters in Evansville, Indiana he still trails 54-46 with 78% of precincts reporting in PA.

12:03am UPDATE: Clinton now leading 55-45 with 96% reporting. CNN currently has Clinton taking 52 PA delegates (1,556 total) while Obama is carrying 46 PA delegates (1,694 total).

Considering the source I have my doubts, but if it’s true tonight could be a very interesting night.  According to ABC News exit polls Clinton is carrying the white vote 60-40 while Obama is carrying the black vote 92-8.  At the same time Clinton is carrying the female vote 55-44 and Obama is carrying the male vote 53-47.  In addition more than six in 10 Pennsylvania voters decided on their candidate more than a month ago.

Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago — a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date.

As far as campaigning, many discern a negative tone — and more blame it on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than on Barack Obama, D-Ill. Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters in preliminary exit poll results say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, but still about half, also say Obama unfairly attacked Clinton.

In other primaries to date, similarly, more saw Clinton than Obama as having attacked unfairly. The difference in Pennsylvania, these preliminary results suggest, is that voters there are more critical of both candidates.

Clinton will likely win tonight but as long as Obama doesn’t lose by any more than 10 points it’s a victory for him considering Clinton was 20+ points ahead just a couple of weeks ago.