Too Progressive

It took me a few hours to put this together but it probably wouldn’t have been possible and certainly wouldn’t be nearly as up to date if SurveyUSA hadn’t released a similar poll last week.  However, SurveyUSA isn’t the best polling source so I averaged all polls I could find that were current within the past month.  The two biggest headlines you could take from this would be that Obama carries Virginia and that even Texas appears to be in play. 

View the state by state results after the jump!

Instead of the traditional list in alphabetical order, let’s take a look at each state by order in which they joined the union:

Delaware(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 51, McCain 41

Pennsylvania(21) (RCP Average) - Obama 43.3, McCain 41.3

New Jersey(15) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 43, McCain 44

Georgia(15) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 54

Connecticut(7) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 55, McCain 34

Massachusetts(12) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 49, McCain 42

Maryland(10) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53, McCain 40

South Carolina(8) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 45, McCain 48

New Hampshire(4) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47.5, McCain 36

Virginia(13) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47.5, McCain 47

New York(31) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 52, McCain 38

North Carolina(15) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 45, McCain 47

Rhode Island(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53, McCain 38

Vermont(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 63, McCain 29

Kentucky(8) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 33, McCain 54

Tennessee(11) (MTSU & SurveyUSA) - Obama 37, McCain 52

Ohio(20)* (RCP Average) - Obama 42.7, McCain 42.7

Louisiana(9) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 54

Indiana(11) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 50

Mississippi(6) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 54

Illinois(21) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 60, McCain 31

Alabama(9) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 40, McCain 54

Maine(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53, McCain 39

Missouri(11) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 45

Arkansas(6) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 33, McCain 53

Michigan(17) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 46.5, McCain 32

Florida(27) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 50

Texas(34) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 46, McCain 47

Iowa(7) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47, McCain 41

Wisconsin(10) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47.5, McCain 41.5

California(55) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 61, McCain 34

Minnesota(10) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 51, McCain 40

Oregon(7) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 49, McCain 40.5

Kansas(6) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 50

West Virginia(5) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 35, McCain 53

Nevada(5) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 48, McCain 39.5

Nebraska(5)** (SurveyUSA) - Obama 42, McCain 45

Colorado(9) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 48, McCain 40

North Dakota(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 46, McCain 42

South Dakota(3) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 40.5, McCain 47.5

Montana(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 47

Washington(11) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 48, McCain 41.5

Idaho(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 52

Wyoming(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 35, McCain 54

Utah(5) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 50

Oklahoma(7) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 34, McCain 57

New Mexico(5) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47, McCain 43.5

Arizona(10) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 51

Alaska(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 43, McCain 48

Hawaii(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 61, McCain 31

Washington, DC (3)***- Obama n/a, McCain n/a

Electoral College Estimate - Obama 281, McCain 237

 *The average in Ohio was a tie between Barack Obama and John McCain.  The electoral college estimate does not reflect Ohio’s 20 votes.  If, for the sake of argument John McCain were to be awarded the 20 votes, Barack Obama would still win the presidency by a electoral vote of 281-257.

**Nebraska awards it’s electoral votes based partially by congressional district.  Obama would likely carry two of the state’s three Congressional districts meaning Obama carries two of the state’s five electoral votes.

***No polling data was available for Washington, DC but Barack Obama is the presumptive winner.

[Cross posted on Daily Kos and Raising Kaine]

Posted on March 10th, 2008